Is China the “main partner” in order to face the largest problems of our time or the “main mediator”, which has been behind the greatest armed conflict in European land since 1945?
At the moment, it depends on who asks.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House caused seismic changes around the world, forcing the countries to overestimate their alliances and rivalry, in desperate demand for shelter against the presidential attack policy.
In particular, their generalized tariffs have deeply broken governments, which are currently seriously considering if in recent decades commercial flows and supply chains have been based, causing indescribable chaos.
For the European Union, the export authority and the firm defender of the free markets, Trump’s tariffs were in the face. Despite the amazing one Twist From the White House, the block will continue to be subjected to a base rate of 10%. In addition, steel, aluminum and cars will be subjected to 25%punitive indicators. Trump threatened to impose more indicators of pharmaceutical products made abroad, a precious sector for Europeans.
Since transatlantic relations are immersed at a dizzying pace, and the US market is becoming more and more exorbitantly high, Brussels is looking for economic opportunities that can compensate, even partially, the shock waves caused by Trump.
China quickly appeared as a promising option.
Thanks to the increasingly richest middle class and, therefore, more and more often buy products produced abroad, China is a profitable commercial partner who can provide new customers and new investments – exactly what they need during the introduction of internal growth and political turbulence abroad.
In 2023, the United States was the main area of products manufactured in the EU (501.9 billion euros), followed by China (223.5 billion euros), according to EurostatNevertheless, China brought most of the goods to the block (516.2 billion euros) after the United States (346.7 billion euros).
This showed the fact that a few days after Trump appeared in the pink garden and revealed his self-adhesive “mutual tariffs”, Ursula von der Lane called the Prime Minister of China Lee Qian to discuss bilateral problems and the state of the world economy.
“In response to the widespread anxiety caused by the US customs rights, President von der Lein emphasized the responsibility for Europe and China, while the two largest markets in the world to support the renovated, free, fair and based commercial system,” the own European commission says. communication official
A The version published by Beijing He was well -known more optimistic and emphasized the “constant dynamics of growth” of relations. “China is ready to work with the European part to contribute to the solid and constant development of relations between China and the EU,” I read von der Lane.
The exchange of views on obvious criticism of Trump’s policy (Lee called them “economic bullying”) immediately suggested that the leaders carefully plant seeds for rapprochement.
Von der Lane, who during Your first term He headed a new policy of disqualification against China, in recent months softens his tone. Now the head of the commission prefers to talk about the “transactional” foreign policy in order to “take part” in Beijing.
The impression of diplomatic thawing deepened a few days later, when the prime minister of Spain Pedro Sanchez went to Beijing and met President Xi Jinping. Sanchez described China as a “main partner” for a clash with current problems and called for a confrontation approach page.
“Spain supports a more balanced relationship between the European Union and China, is looking for consistent decisions about our differences, and wider cooperation in areas of common interest,” said Sanchez.
On Friday, the commission gave another news: Brussels and Beijing agreed to analyze again the “Adherence of price” (minimum prices) option to resolve a long -term dispute about electric cars made in China. There was an option Repeatedly produced Last year, but was carefully abandoned from a lack of progress.
The diplomats of the member states, traditionally divided in relation to how to deal with China, took a note about events, slowly with a sentence.
“The EU wants and should be considered as a reliable partner in the world,” said one diplomat, acting on anonymity. “In this sense, the discussion with China is developing because China is looking at us in the same way. I do not think that the European approach to China has completely changed, but the winds are changing. ”
Checking reality
Geopolitical winds can change, but not everything is blowing in favor of China.
Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced this His army captured two Chinese citizens fighting with Russia in Ukrainian territory. He later stated that his government collected “exact data”, which indicated that more than 150 Chinese citizens joined the war with Moscow.
Ukrainian security services say that Chinese citizens were scored by Russia through advertising, namely on social networks, but could not check if the central government of Beijing knew or involved in the operation.
“I think that the United States of America should pay attention to what is happening today. And we hope that this will be another country that supports the invasion of Ukraine through Russia – on the side of Russia. After Iran and the North Korean military, this is another country, ”Zelensky said.
The China Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated, saying that there was a “any actual base” in the statements.
“The Chinese government always asks Chinese citizens to remain remote from the zones of armed conflicts,” said Lin Jian, a representative of the ministry.
In Brussels, the news appeared only a few hours after von der Lane talked with the prime minister Lee, almost like control over reality, which softened the ardor of a potential approach.
Over the past three years, the EU was disappointed with the position of Beijing regarding a large -scale invasion of Ukraine, which is systematically called the “crisis”, and the partnership of the “borders”, established between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. (XI should be present at the celebration on May 9 in Moscow, at the invitation of Putin. On the other hand, he refused to move to Belgium to the UE-China summit in July).
The high representative of the EU Kaja Kallas left no doubt about his disappointment.
“Of course, that China is the main mediator of the Russian war. Without Chinese support, Russia will not be able to wage war in the amount that it is destroyed. 80% of dual use of goods enter Russia through China, ”said Callas, citing evasion of Western sanctions.
“If China really wanted to put an end to this support, it would have influenced.”
Beijing’s close friendship with Moscow came to a series of complaints and tension, which plunged relations between the EU and China at a lower point.
Another tension includes mass exports of low -level products produced in China, the strong use of state subsidies compared to foreign competitors, protectionist rules that prevent European access to the Chinese market. Observation citizens and private companies, pandemia Covid-19, aggressive behavior in Taiwanese StraitRepression of the Uiguur minority in the Sinjiang region, human rights violations, cyber campaigns and misinformation campaigns.
It is unlikely that any coordination between Brussels and Beijing to combat Trump’s tariffs can solve this long and unrelated series of open fronts, all complex and depending on factors that are far beyond the control of the EU.
Although some leaders, such as Spanish Pedro Sanchez and Hungarian Viktor Orban, protect the reaction of relations, others remain deeply skeptical. In the agreement on the coalition of the next government of Germany, headed by Friedrich Merz, we can read: “We must admit that the elements of systemic rivalry have now come to the above as a result of China’s actions.”
Contradictions in public discourse – turn to narrower cooperation along with dull criticism – make a constant difficulty in finding a general and unified line of action in China among 27 member states. The ambivalence remained even when Beijing supported the same country as Blok, considers his main opponent – Russia – and should continue, while the EU strives to cope with Trump’s riots.
If these partnerships are based on genuine common values or opportunistic pragmatism, is a completely different issue.
“Commercial negotiations with China are not necessarily related to a closer approach to Beijing, but using this strategic moment of uncertainty for negotiations about new conditions and a new picture for commitment to China,” said Alikya Bachulka, a member of the European Council on External Relations (ECFR).
“This is not a return to” business as usual. ” The EU would like to get some concessions from Beijing, such as the obligatory rules for transferring China technologies or the requirements for local content, trying to ensure value added to the European economy.