The announcement of new US tariffs moved markets over the past week and increased fear of a possible global recession. President Donald Trump has established a universal interest rate of 10%, which directly affects Chinese imports, now subject to a total taxation of 54%.
The most important expected effect is an increase in American inflation in the short term, as well as a slowdown in economic activity, improved by a hard winter in the northern hemisphere. Check out Report.
Cascade effect: influence on Brazil
The trade war can benefit Brazilian commodity exporters, as China can divert its US requirements to Brazil, which occurred between 2018 and 2020.
However, the 10% interest rate on all imports can damage sectors that sell directly to the United States. For investors, companies with American production, inflation protection and grain exporters are highlighted in this scenario.
Growth and reforms: Brazil in the opposite direction?
While the United States is facing uncertainties, the Brazilian economy continues to show signs of robustness.
The income tax reform arrived at Congress and GDP growth forecasts were reviewed: 2.0% to 2.3% in 2025 and 1.0% to 1.5% in 2026.
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XP maintains its opinion that Selic can rise up to 15.50% before inflation persons.
Will the rally from the Brazilian scholarship continue?
March was the best month for Brazilian measures since August 2024, while US markets met turbulence.
Data points out strong capital input in emerging markets, which can support the local rally. In the current scenario, high inflation and high interest rates, companies with quality profile tend to stand out.
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Check out the entire XP report to find out how to place yourself.
IR 2025: First name is now available
Since Tuesday (1st), the full income tax in 2025 can be reached by the taxpayers with Gov.BR of silver or gold level, reported by the IRS.
More than half of the statements sent this year are expected to use this tool. In addition to the income tax generator program, the statement can also be made by the mobile phone and the virtual taxpayers’ service center (E-CAC). Have you sent yours? Check out the rules and calendar here.
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- Learn the rules and see the calendar here.
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