Carrefour Brazil (CRFB3) announced an improvement in the proposal to close the company’s capital and also re -planned the extraordinary general assembly (age) to approve the transaction until April 25 (earlier, April 7). The price offered was high R $ 7.70 to R $ 8.50. Thus, the dealer’s action jumped 10.77%, to 8.23 R $ and registered one of the only heights in Ibovespspa, which was closed in a strong drop of 2.96%. The second increase was from Minerva (Beef), with a positive variation of 0.15%.
BRADSCO BBI evaluates the new offer as an attempt to try to reduce the uncertainty about a potential proposal rejection, as well as to offer a more adapted profit with the latest positive result of the retailers’ actions.
Given the noise generated by groups of minority shareholders in response to the first proposal – is not considered attractive at a time when CRFB3 It approached its historical minimum, with high capital costs, rally and an ongoing ongoing ongoing – “The perception of risk of approval of the operation was given strength,” BBI points out.
Since the first announcement, February 11, the price of CRFB3 It was to some extent anchored around the proposal at $ 7.70 (the price rose by 4% since that day), while retailers were generally valued, especially the main pair of Carrefour Brazil, Assaí (Asai3), which rose 19% since February 11.
According to the new terms, the proposed R $ 8.50 per action, according to BBI, comes a pricing that is more suitable for the current context – the value represents an estimate of 56% compared to the final price in 2024, compared with 50% registered by Asai3 During the same period.
Bratesco BBI maintained a neutral recommendation and target price of $ 7.
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In XP’s evaluation, the measure will no longer negotiate based on basic factors and will probably be negotiated closer to $ 8.50 cash proposals.
XP Investmentos continues to see the conditions for the proposed valuation, 14.5 and 8.9 times price/profit 2025 and 2026, as a reference for other Atacarejo players, with Assaí and Mateus Group (Gmat3) Negotiate at 9.4 to 8.9 times p/L 2026. However, the broker notes that the road forward should remain uncertain, with local news that indicates that consulting companies and investors see the fair exchange relationship still over updated terms.
JPMorgan, in turn, said it did not believe that the transaction block was a probable scenario, especially after segregation of part of peninsula’s participation, which made 2.4% of the shares in CRFB3 Elegant to vote for age.
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According to Banco Amaerican, there is also concern among investors that if the business is blocked, the controlling shareholder can dilute the value of minorities and gradually force them to leave the company.
In this context, JPMorgan continues to believe that the transaction must be approved, and that improved conditions should increase the measures, with a potential of 14% in 100% cash alternatives. THE CRFB3 It is negotiated until a number of prices/estimated profits at 2025 of 11 times.
JPMorgan maintained a neutral recommendation and target price of $ 7.70.
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Large investments believe that the measure should already be opened with a significant gap and converges close to the amount offered. Carrefour’s revised proposals are made at a time when activist funds tried to organize minorities to block the proposal because they found that the award is offered unattractive.
“With a free float of about 27.6%, which ignores the participation of the control unit and the peninsula, the approval of the proposal requires a favorable vote of more than half of these minority shareholders,” reminds the genius.
Goldman Sachs points out that the new proposal represents a 32% estimate potential compared to the final price for Carrefour shares on February 10 and a 46% price of average volume (VWAP) average price one month before that date.