SAO Paulo (Reuters) – Electricity levels in Brazil should increase an average of 3.5% up to 2025, during inflation calculated for the year, but additional fees through the customs flag system should still affect the electricity bill and can reach consumers as early as May.
On Monday, the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel) released a projection of a 3.5% increase in energy tariffs this year, during the estimates of 5.6% for the IPCA index and 5.1% for IGP-M.
According to calculations of the supervisory authority, the high tariff in 2025 mainly reflects increases of 2% of the so -called “installment B”, which includes the cost of energy distribution activity, and 1.6% of sectoral fees, especially the energy development account (CDE), which combines the most important subsidies in the electricity sector.
With contributions to softening discharge, there is a reduction of 2.7% in financial components in the ticket price, for example by returning to more consumers charged the energy bill before the exclusion of ICMs from the PIS/Cofin’s calculation base.
However, extra fees for the electricity bill should begin to be seen in May, probably with the yellow flag according to analyst forecasts, due to the most unfavorable scenario for power generation in the country.
In addition to entry into the dry period, which affects hydropower, the main source of the Brazilian matrix, production costs have been affected by a more rejecting pricing model.
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This makes the price of short -term market search, although hydropower reservoirs are close to 70%at levels that are considered comfortable earlier.
Scenarios for the electricity chamber (CCEE) indicate a higher probability of yellow flag in the electricity bill next month, which contributes to the electricity bill R $ 1.88 per 100 kilowatt hours consumed, after five months with the trigger of green, without extra charging.
The broker Warren Rena also requires Yellow Flag in May, followed by a sequence of red flags level 1 and rode 2 between June and October. The institution’s forecast is a green flag in December, so it would not affect this year’s IPCA, estimated at 5.5%.
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Currently, more of consumers is charged $ 4.46/100 kWh in the red flag 1 and $ 7.87/100kWh in red 2.
Ampere Consultoria, which provides solutions for the energy and agricultural sectors, is currently projecting yellow flag in May and red flags until November, which ends the year with a yellow flag again. Ampere forecasts will be updated this week.
Extra collection on the electricity bill via flags was created to transfer more immediately to consumers’ increases in power generation costs. The mechanism also serves to make consumers aware of the country’s electrical generation situation and any need for energy saving.
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In addition to the spot price, called PLD, other factors enter into the calculation of customs flags, such as hydrological risk (GSF), which expose hydropower generators to the short -term energy market.
In 2024, the customs flag was green for consumers until July, when it triggered yellow. The extra fee returned in September and followed to November, with the year that ended with the green flag in December.