The long -awaited April 2 – The nickname “Liberation Day” From the Trump administration – she arrived, with Washington, ready to disclose new tariffs about her main business partners, placing the European Union directly on the fire line.
Recent reports show that new customs rights can reach 20% on all imports aimed at a wide range of sectors, from cars to pharmaceutical products. In the case of use, this measure will marked a sharp ascent to transatlantic commercial tension and can be a tough blow to the already weak industrial dynamics of Europe.
But what could be the seriousness of the economic consequences for Europe and which countries are most affected?
In 2024, the European Union exported 382 billion euros to the United States, according to the international shopping center.
The United States represented 12% of the EU total external demand, becoming the largest export market in the block.
The application of a fixed right by 20% to these flows can lead to a direct decrease in exports by 85 billion euros, although indirect influence can be deeper, since higher prices reduce American demand.
Germany, Slovakia and Hungary are disproportionately touched upon
The risk is more serious in the automotive sector, traditional European industry and a symbol of the German model focused on export. In 2024, the export of EU cars in the United States rose by 46.3 billion euros.
Now they can encounter combined tariffs up to 45%, 20% in new Trump indicators and 25% of the previously existing rate declared in early March.
In this rhythm, new rights can make European vehicles widely uncompetitive in the US rooms, which increases the point of view of the almost complete collapse of European automobile deliveries.
“Customs about car export is a serious problem for the German economy,” said Daniel Parker, economist in the economy of Capital Economics.
“Stuttak, Alta Bavaria and the Braunschweig region, which includes Wolfsburg, must have the most pronounced effects.”
These areas not only place the production centers of Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Volkswagen, but also function as critics of components in the global chain of car supplies.
His factories are deeply integrated with American assembly operations and their sea ports – especially Hamburg and Bremerhaven – move significant volumes of expeditions for the US market.
The effects of the chain go far beyond the limits of Germany. Slovakia, where Kia and Volkswagen plants are located in regions such as Nitra and Zilina, are strongly exhibited. The same applies to the automatic pillars of Gör in Hungary and Linz and Graz in Austria.
Any violation of German exports can affect the network of highly specialized suppliers in Central Europe.
The pharmaceutical sector will also feel the consequences
Pharmaceutical products, the most profitable category of EU export for the United States, are also at risk.
In 2023, this sector registered a record commercial surplus when export to America represents almost 15% of the total gross production. Ireland and Denmark led a process due to the growing success of companies such as Novo Nordisk.
Since 2022, Danish industrial production has been due to new successful drugs for the weight loss of the new Nordisk, such as Oppendiks. Only the demand in the United States brought two -thirds of its income in 2023.
But the same success can now offer retribution. The reports circulating in Washington suggest that the specific speed on Semaglutis is an active ingredient in new treatment methods – it can be on Trump’s radar, in the visible radar, to press Denmark for geopolitical problems, such as Granelândia.
“The strategy may include an indication of a specific speed of semi -unglutis, the main ingredient in the new drugs for the Slimming Nordisk, which will violate the Danish exports and benefit the US competitors,” Parked said.
Goldman Sachs scripts draw a dark picture
Goldman Sachs economist Giovanni Pirmoniko provides wide macroeconomic consequences.
In the basic script of the company, new customs rights will increase the average effective right to EU products to 20%against current 7%. In a more unfavorable scenario, which includes US adjustments to the additional cost of Europe, this rate can increase to 43%.
In the basic script, Goldman provides that the gross domestic product of the euro is 0.7% lower at the end of 2026 compared to the script without customs rights, and most of the damage will be expected until the end of 2025.
“Currently, we are predicting a decrease in growth to the rest of 2025, with an unassited expansion of GDP only 0.1%, 0.0% and 0.2% in the second, third and fourth quarters,” Pirmentich said.
In the scenario of descendants next year, the euro zone can proceed to a technical recession with an accumulated loss of 1.2% of GDP from the base script without tariffs. However, the dynamics of inflation should become more complicated.
Goldman increased its forecast for basic inflation by 2025 to 2.1% and warns about the peak potential of 2.3% if the EU retribution exacerbates prices.
What will the ECB do?
The European Central Bank can be caught by unpaid dilemma: inflation growth in the short term from commercial friction, but growth before stagnation.
According to Goldman, the theoretical approach involves a large monetary flexibility.
The company predicts a decrease in the interest rates of the ECB in April and June, and in July an additional 25 -oron movement – as a result of simplicity of the deposit of up to 1.75%.