PetrobrasPetr4) is approaching a crucial technical region in the middle of recent instability. For Rafael Perretti, technical analyst, the company maintains a solid structure in the long -term graph, even with short -term noise from external factors and macroeconomic news.
Technical Analysis: Critical Support Zone can define the next movements
According to Perretti, Petrobra’s long -term graph follows a primary rise trend, although it has met phases of instability caused by various economic instability.
“Unlike Ibovespa, lateralized in postpandeia, Petrobras has managed to break historical peaks and consolidate a high trend even in a negative macroeconomic environment,” he says.
The analyst also notices the behavior of 200 periods that move on average, a classic reference in technical analysis. “When Petrobras has contacted this average over the years, the divisions have failed and the paper has been resumed high. Now, again, we test this region, which coincides with an important front background. If there is a loss of this support, there is room for deeper correction,” he warns.
In the short term, the paper’s behavior reflects instability. Perretti observes a sequence of gaps on the diagram last month and explained that they were caused by various factors: “There was a gap because of the balance, another through the oil management during the carnival and then the market reaction on the new customs that affected the price of the goods”.
Basics: Accounting Damages are not worried, cash production follows strongly
In the fundamentalist field, Perretti says that the accounting injury that Petrobras released during the fourth quarter of 2024 does not worry. “This result was affected by non -recurrent effects. When we look at the free cash flow, the company generated a lot of cash. If we exclude the extraordinary effects, the company would have registered the net profit,” he explains.
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He emphasizes that expectations of 2025 are positive as long as oil cooperates. “Petrobras continues to deliver value, and the basics are still healthy,” he says.
Oil scenario: Geopolitical tension pushes the price, but OPEC can react
The price of oil also entered the investor radar following Donald Trump’s statements on April 2. The US President announced customs duties on partner countries – including China – who revived fear of a global recession.
“The possibility of financial slowdown has in control the global demand for oil, and the market reacted rapidly. The drum fell to the 60 $ interval,” says Perretti.
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But he sees the chance to recover in the medium and long term. “OPEC should act if the oil is a long time at this level. A production cutting can take the barrel back to $ 75 or $ 80. If this happens, Petrobras tends to respond with estimate.”
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