Foreign investors show a growing interest in the Brazilian market, but in a hurry to make large allocations in the country. This was the perception of Raphael Figueredo, XP’s variable income strategist, after a new trip to the United States, where he met great international funds. The analyst, known as Rafi, shared his impressions on the Stock Pickers program, presented by Lucas Collazo and Henrique Estets.
“What I heard a lot is: ‘I want to buy Brazil again, I look, I find the level at valuationThe basis for companies, return level, dividend and quality of management. There is a great interest, but without urgent, “Figueredo said.
According to him, at the end of 2024, many investors reduced their exposure to Brazil in the midst of volatility and the scenario with uncertainty. “Many active funds had an exhibition above benchmark In Brazil, as they expected a more significant interest, which did not occur in the expected form. This led to a sales movement, ”he explained.
Global scenario
Despite the renewed interest in Brazil, the number of foreign capital flows shows that the movement is still shy. “The latest entrance flow was about $ 10 billion, which corresponds to less than $ 2 billion. It is not a significant volume for the global market, but enough to affect a bag that is relatively inexpensive,” Rafi said.
He also mentioned that the rotation of investments to emerging markets has benefited Brazil, but that there are still no clear signs that this is related to the 2026 presidential election. “We analyzed flow data from Global ETs and saw that this year. The election scenario,” he explained.
The XP strategist considered that although the theme for Brazilian elections is in investors’ radar, there is not yet a significant flow of capital that comes into the country for this reason. “The market can enter into a” election trade “over the next nine to twelve months, but at the moment the money that comes here has a different origin,” he said.
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Figueredo also commented that some investors during the recent conferences compared Brasil’s situation with the one in Argentina, where hedge funds served the government’s change. “Many foreign investors, especially those with the most aggressive profiles, have made a lot of money on the elections in Argentina. Therefore, this theme is in many people’s minds and increases the possibility that something similar can happen in Brazil,” he said.
Aktie Pickers program, which also participated in Fernando Ferreira, chief strategist at XP Investmentos, emphasized that Brazil, despite the renewed interest, remains a volatility market. “Each flow of foreign capital makes a difference here, given the size of our stock market. But the global scenario and internal decisions will continue to be decisive for the market course in the coming months,” concluded Figueredo.