This week’s share voters have hired the debate on the current investment rotation in the global market. The program was presented by Lucas Collazo and Henrique Estets and participated by Fernando Ferreira, chief strategist at XP Investmentos and Raphael Figueredo, known as Rafi, XP’s variable income strategist.
The experts analyzed US weak performance earlier this year. The S&P 500 fell 10% compared to the previous maximum and closed the quarter with a devaluation of 5%. Nasdaq registered an even more pronounced retreat, over 10% during the same period. At the same time, global bags followed an opposite movement: Europe rose more than 15%, China advanced more than 20%and Brazil in dollars gathered an increase of almost 17%.
From the United States
The main explanation for this divergence, according to Ferreira, is a faster capital rotation from the United States. This movement had already been signed in the report “Where to invest”, published by the end of 2024, which indicated opportunities in addition to Giants of American Technology, the so -called “Magnificent Seven”. The document emphasized that the valuation distribution for US documents reached a historical level, with the S&P 500 negotiated almost 10 points over other global prices/profit bags.
With the poor results of the US market and the estimate of international scholarships, this difference began to close. The S&P 500 is currently running close to 20 times profits, while the global markets are about 14 times, which reduces the gap to six points. Despite the correction, the valuation of US actions is still above the historical average.
Investment flow
Rotation is also visible in the flow of investment. Quantitative and CTAS funds (Trend followers) has reduced exposure to the US market in recent months. However, Figueredo emphasized that despite the last case Great techniques They remain a large global consensus, supported by the artificial intelligence thesis.
The retail investor has also played a crucial role in maintaining the US market and continues to buy shares even with institutional departure. The mindset as the “scholarship is rising only”, developed in recent years, still leads part of the flow to the technology sector.
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Large techniques maintain relevance
Ferreira claimed that the thesis on artificial intelligence remains valid. Companies like Nvidia saw their revenue grow exponentially with demand for AI chips. In addition valuation Of the technical giants, adjustments underwent and became more durable. For example, Google negotiates 16-17 times profit, while Amazon, which has been worth 100 times its revenue, now operates within 30.
Political impact
Another factor that may affect investment rotation is political uncertainty in the United States. The opportunity for new Trump management and changes in economic policy can affect consumer and business confidence. According to Ferreira, many entrepreneurs predicted imports to avoid any future prices, which may distort the growth of US GDP in the coming quarters.
Dollar DEVALATION During the first quarter also favored emerging markets and strengthens the flow to other regions. However, there is a risk that the American economy will face a sudden stop if political uncertainty gets worse and compromises business and consumer confidence.
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With a global transition scenario, the tendency for investment rotation should remain on radar for analysts and investors when the market suits new dynamics and opportunities outside the United States.