World markets remain unstable after a cruel fall Customs rights last weekThe China Pole was marked by an important ascent to the world trade war after the country was introduced 34% tariffs for all imports from the United States Last Friday. Investors are afraid that an increase in commercial barriers can push the world economy to recession.
This week, market participants will continue to monitor the development of tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump and the reactions of other major economies. Increased uncertainty, probably contributes to risk rejection in world markets.
In this context, US inflation data will serve as a critical indicator of the country’s economic trajectory, offering information about the political orientation of the federal reserve system. Other important regional measures, including a report on the industrial production of Germany, a decision on fees in the New Zealand reserve bank and inflation of China, will also attract the attention of investors.
Europe
The European Union is preparing Unified CountRat in response to Trump’s steel industry and mutual tariffs, joining Canada and China in an announcement of new retribution measures. It is also expected that the White House reports on the bets of imports on copper, pharmaceutical products, semiconductors and pillar.
In economic terms, Germany has disclosed data in the February industrial production. In January, industrial production increased by 2%, recovering after a decrease by 1.5% in December, supported by recovery in the automobile and food sectors. Nevertheless, the production of transforming industry was reduced, and the energy sector also weakened. According to the Federal Statistical Service of Germany, industrial production decreased by 1.6% in homologous terms and was stagnated from November 2024 to January 2025. Consensus suggests that production may have fallen by 0.9% in February, a month after a month.
As for the markets, the euro shot after the mutual announcement of Trump about mutual tariffs, since since October 2024 it grew to the highest level. These trends are likely to remain in the midst of current uncertainty.
United States
Inflation in the USA in March will be an outstanding moment this week. In February, the annual consumer price index (IPC) increased by 2.8%, while basic inflation, which excludes unstable objects, such as food and energy, increased by 3.1%. Although both values were cooler than expected, they remain higher than the target of 2% of the federal reserve system. Consensus forecasts now suggest that global inflation may have slowed up to 2.6% in March, while the base IPC, it may have fallen to 3%.
Nevertheless, the escalation of the World Trade War may be an increase in inflation pressure and, at the same time, slowing down, complicates the decision -making by Fedom. President of the US Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell said that the Central Bank does not need to rush to make any political changes and that he will expect more clarity regarding the economic impact of the actions of the Trump administration. The minutes of the meeting of the Federal Market Committee (FOMC), planned for this week, will also be analyzed to obtain instructions on the political prospects of the Fed.
In addition, investors will be aware of the US producer (PPI) producer (PPI) and a preliminary mood for consumers of the University of Michigan. February PPI values were aligned with IPC data, indicating a slowdown in inflationary pressure. Nevertheless, the feeling of the consumer fell in the third month in a row in March, the fall to 57 – the lowest from November 2022 – in the midst of growing problems with economic conditions. Two -thirds of consumers expect unemployment to increase over one year, the highest rate since 2009. Inflational expectations for one year increased to 5%, as well as the highest cost since November 2022. It is expected that this feeling will continue to decrease, reaching 54 in April.
Asia-Pacific region
China must disclose its March inflation data, which are critical data for evaluating consumer demand. Consumer prices fell by 0.7% in the same period in February, the first descent from January 2024, partly from seasonal factors. It is expected that inflation will return to modest growth in March, with an annual increase of 0.1%. In response to the growing commercial tension with the United States, the Chinese government will probably take new stimulus measures intended to increase domestic demand. Nevertheless, weaker readings than expected can lead to further pressing the sensation of the world market, especially consumer actions.
The New Zealand Reserve Bank (RBNZ) must also announce its decision at the interest rate with defeats of 25 points, which led to 3.5%. RBNZ made three consistent reductions by 50 points since October last year, when the country entered into a technical recession. It is expected that the Central Bank will support the “pigeon” pose (more flexible), especially in the light of violation of the global market caused by the policy of Trump’s administrative activity.