The United States is a leading commercial extractumonism partner in Portugal, since in 2023 the weight in the United States is 2% of GDP. However, the orientation of the new US administration increases the barriers to enter national goods in the country, including an increase in customs rights to import goods.
In this context, Banco de Portugal (BDP) assessed the degree of impact on the economy and Portuguese companies on the US market, withdrawing that the national sectors that are more in danger to the Donald Trump administration are the production of non -metallic mineral products (which include glass, ceramic and cement), industry, industry, industry, industry, industry, industry, industry, industry, industry, industry, industry, industry, industry, industry, industry, industry Equipment, equipment, equipment, communications, communications, accomplices and stronghold.
In all these strongly exporting sectors, the percentage of companies with the corresponding influence of the US market ranges from 8% to 12%, describes in detail the study published in the new economic ballot of the Central Bank, controlled by Mario Centeno.
BDP explains that “about 70% of the cost of goods exported by portugal in the United States collide from 0% to 2%,” however, “6% of the export cost affect tariffs equal or exceeding 10%.”
Thus, “the influence on the Portuguese export of the possible exacerbation of American tariffs will depend on factors such as the value of increased customs rates for each type of good and their weight in Portuguese export to the US market.”
In addition, “the reaction of exporting companies is in the dynamic context in which new markets are looking for, and where there are changes in the levels of consumer efficiency and relative prices on international transformed goods, will also determine the influence of new tariffs,” the Central Bank adds.
In practice, this means that with the introduction of tariffs, “the American consumer will observe the increase in the price of goods and, therefore, will reduce a searching amount.” According to BDP, exporting companies will be able to soften this effect by reducing their sales by squeezing their profits, or, in cases of multinational companies, another response strategy may be the creation of productive capabilities in the United States.
However, despite the decrease in transport costs to the final consumer, “the displacement of production implies a change in cost structure, which may not be compatible using comparative advantages, which makes this option impossible,” he warns.
Indirect changes can also be affected by the addition of companies, or changes in prices practiced by their competitors in various markets, or due to changes in supply chains and production costs.
“The influence of changes in tariffs that can be expanded due to response measures will be negative for exports and the total welfare of the economy,” and “will require adaptation of companies and state policy,” warns the study.
In the advanced scenarios of the Central Bank, an increase by 25% in tariffs imposed in the United States, in particular, to the imported European Union, accompanied by retaliation of equal magnitude by injured countries.
“This increase in tariffs can lead to the accumulated reduction in the euro zone between 0.5% to 0.7% after three years, which is more significant in the first year.”
As for the influence on the Portuguese economy, BDP evaluates a reduction in GDP, close to 0.7% to the end of three years or more concentrated in the first year.
In addition to the direct consequences of the introduction of the tariffs “Environment of greater uncertainty, with the negative consequences of the trust of economic agents, the result of future commercial policy, their scale and duration, the possibility of retaliatory measures and induced volatility in the production costs and prices of goods” can also lead to “reduction of investment and personal consumption”.
In this structure, “the global influence of shocks in question indicates a cumulative reduction in GDP by about 1.1% in the end of three years, and the effects are concentrated in the first two years,” says the Central Bank, controlled by Mario Senteno.