The trial of US President Donald Trump from “placing in control of the international scheme that exists today” with a new degree of tariff provides the role of the world trade organization WTO.
Created 30 years ago as a forum of negotiations and agreements to reduce obstacles to international trade, its results have been tested for several years – especially by the United States, which participated in its view.
Read the first part of the interview: The “tariff” possibilities are punctual and do not compensate for losses and injuries, says earlier
Since 2019, under Trump’s first mandate, the United States blocked new nominations of judges to the main complainant court. Without the complete judges, the organ is in practice inoperative.
Ambassador Roberto Azevêdo, who led WTO from 2013 to 2020, hopes that Trump’s “customs” could at least be a “painful way” to provoke update and modernization of the organization’s system.
“Since it will be part of this entire process, which makes it possible to talk between the members and try to find solutions, my hope would be that this situation would lead to a reformulation of the system. WTO rules were negotiated in the 1980s, there was no internet when these rules were introduced,” he told the program. Infoomoney interview.
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See the entire interview in the player above or read the main extracts below:
Infoomoney – How is the commercial agreement between Mercosur and the European Union for the Customs system introduced by Donald Trump in the United States?
Azevêdo – Strictly speaking, timing is large, since everything is a comprehensive and well thought out strategy for Brazil should consider is diversification. Diversifying markets, diversifying opportunities, looking for new partners, looking for trading channels that reduce dependence on the country from a market, a geography, a product. Diversification is the game’s rule today, not only for Brazil, but for the world. Old partnership is questioned.
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This is a good time for Brazil to deepen relations with Europe, it is healthy. I imagine that Europe is thinking in the same way, and I think it shouldn’t end there. We should seek a commercial, economic strategy, with other blocks, countries and markets with more determination than before.
Infoomoney – like what you saw on President Lula’s latest trip to Japan.
Azevêdo – He even mentioned the possibility of negotiating free trade areas – and if that is true it is a good movement. I think Brazil should explore this with the most important business partners.
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Also read: Lula says he will work according to Mercosur Trade Agreement with Japan
Infoomoney – the Lord has been targeting WTO for several years. How do you see the organization’s organization at this time of tendency to protectionism, even given the challenges that the United States itself establishes the body?
Azevêdo – As a curious can seem, it is precisely in these moments that the fragile organization it is, it gets relevance and people begin to value.
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There are many countries that at WTO did not want to negotiate anything because I thought the system was not good. Today I would thank God for the system to work. So the value of the system begins to be perceived more and more, especially by those who are not on the American side, who question the international economic and commercial order.
Also read: Trump interest rates mean crime in international trade, experts say
WTO is a multilateral system based on clear rules, which are interpreted differently. Normally and naturally, because they are established and negotiated rules for 80 years.
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This system is an anchor for conversations. The other countries that talk to each other use this system as an anchor for relationships, because the ideal, in a situation like this, would be to avoid the law of the jungle, where it has no rule, the law of the strongest and everyone does what they want. The system can be a cornerstone to prevent the whole world from ending there.
“There will be a lot of law on the jungle, bilateralism or one -sided, but if we can use the system to prevent us from agreeing in this dog world, the better. So the system gets even more strength today.”
Since it will be part of this entire process, which makes it possible to talk between members and try to find solutions, my hope would be that this situation would lead to a reformulation of the system. WTO rules were negotiated in the 80s, there was no internet when these rules were introduced.
It is obvious that the system must be updated and modernized. Maybe this is a painful way to make this update happen.
Infomoney: Do you see that there is a retreat in the globalization process that has been established in recent decades?
There was a peak of globalization in the early 2000s, when China emerged as the world’s factory and grew at really extraordinary prices, a very strong international trade growth, with what we call outsourcing – The production and value chains are very integrated. Since then, we have begun to see a greater tendency for “self -sufficiency” in the sense of self -sufficiency, countries believe that they cannot depend so much on others.
This worsened in the pandemic. Suddenly, countries have realized that they had no ability to produce or important products to save lives in their territory. This generated some political discomfort, including ideological. This view of self -sufficiency, to bring industrialization and jobs inside, adds.
“This is often seen as a setback in globalization. I do not see it, I think globalization is irreversible. The integration of value chains is irreversible. With ease of communication, interaction, logistics that we have today to connect countries, it is impossible for you to mislead, honestly said.”
But we will have a different globalization, with other rules, with other views, with other logic for commercial integration. The digital space itself organizes, we do not know how it will be all this. It is a development with many interrogation points. But clearly it is globalization – some even talk about regulation, rather than misleading.
Infomoney – and about the globalization of the early 2000s was very based on outsourcing And in the integration of global chains, will the new process that the Lord identifies from now on?
Azevêdo – President Trump’s attempt is to control the international order that exists today. It is difficult to say exactly what the end of the trip is, as it will depend a lot on how the private sector itself and the economic operators will react to all this.
“To begin with, what we see is a capital market almost panic, with the flying stock exchanges, the shares in companies that are declining, an escape for the so -called safe Gaids, such as gold, fixed taxes, uncertainty is very great.”
I am not convinced that we are already defined and that we will come to a new reality where production chains will be internalized, will enter the country, that this plan for re -industrialization of President Trump will happen. There is a lot of water to pass under this bridge.
Much of what you think is possible will not be possible or will not be comfortable or financially sustainable.
It is early to say that we leave a period of outsourcing And absolute integration, and we go to a model of self -sufficiency and nationalization of productive methods. I would calm down.